International COVID-19 analysis

 

Below is the latest international comparison of COVID-19 data using WHO published figures. As mentioned before, country to country comparison has some limitations because of the variation in approach, data collection and testing.

 

Data from 07/12/2020:

 

• Worldwide, there have now been 85.9 million confirmed cases, an increase of 5.4% since the previous week (4.4 million more cases and up from 5.1% the week before). This suggests that worldwide cases continue to rise at a steady rate. COVID-19 deaths increased by 4.3% in the past week to 1,876,100 (77,225 more deaths). This is similar to the growth rate in the week before of +4.2%.
• The UK is now ranked at 5^th in the world with 2,836,805 total cases and has seen the greatest increase in cases in the past week compared to any other country (+16.6% and 403,913 more cases). This accounts for 3.3% of world cases. The number of UK deaths (77,436) accounts for 4.1% of world deaths. The UK remains the country with the highest death toll in Europe and the fifth highest death toll globally.
• Meanwhile, the rate of growth in confirmed cases across Europe appears to be a mixed picture with some countries experiencing an increased growth in cases while others have seen new cases slow down. The UK has seen the biggest increase in cases compared to any other country for the week where growth increased from 13.2% last week to 16.6% this week.
• Cases in Italy increased by 5.7% this week (118,256 more cases), up from a growth rate of +4.6% since the previous week. France experienced a 4.1% increase in cases (104,032 more cases), down from a growth rate of +13.2% last week. Cases in Spain increased by 3.0% (57,318 more cases). This is down from 3.7% in the previous week. Germany has seen a 6.7% increase in cases this week (115,301 more cases), down from a growth rate of +8.4% the week before. Germany has seen the highest increase in deaths in the past week (+13.7% and 4,536 more deaths).
• The USA remains the country with the most cases and deaths in the world, accounting for 24.3% of world cases (20,870,913 cases) and 18.9% of total deaths (354,286 deaths). India remains the country with the second highest of cases in the world with 10,395,278 cases, an increase of 1.3% cases since last week. Cases in South America seem to be increasing at a steady rate where the growth rate in Brazil (+3.3%) and Colombia has remained the same as the previous week (+5.5%).
• South Africa remains the worst affected country in Africa with 1,149,591 recorded cases and 31,368 deaths.
• Currently England has 17 times more cases than Scotland (143,715 cases), 15 times more cases than Wales (163,234 cases) and 30 times more cases than Northern Ireland (84,646 cases) (PHE data).

 

 

		Cases	% change since last week	Deaths	% change since last week	Death rate
1	USA	20,870,913	7.9%	354,286	5.5%	1.7%
2	India	10,395,278	1.3%	150,336	1.1%	1.4%
3	Brazil	7,810,400	3.3%	197,732	2.6%	2.5%
4	Russia	3,332,142	5.5%	60,457	6.0%	1.8%
5	UK	2,836,805	16.6%	77,346	6.6%	2.7%
6	France	2,660,740	4.1%	66,184	3.4%	2.5%
7	Italy	2,201,945	5.7%	76,877	4.4%	3.5%
8	Spain	1,982,543	3.0%	51,430	0.9%	2.6%
9	Germany	1,835,038	6.7%	37,607	13.7%	2.0%
10	Colombia	1,702,966	5.5%	44,428	4.2%	2.6%
11	Argentina	1,662,730	3.8%	43,785	1.8%	2.6%
12	Turkey	1,469,593	6.5%	22,070	6.9%	1.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International policy updates:

 

Vaccine:

 

• Most countries aren’t quite yet on track to hit their vaccine goals, reports the Economist. The most successful countries in vaccine rollout were Israel (15.83 doses per 100 people), UAE (8.35 doses per 100), Bahrain (3.75 per 100) and Britain (1.39 per 100)
• The EU has doubled its supply of the Pfizer vaccine, and now has deals for 2.3 billion doses.
• States in the USA are beginning to vaccinate hospital workers, firefighters and nursing home residents. Several countries have vowed to inoculate the most vulnerable in society, however Indonesia will vaccinate working age adults. This is partially a way to revive the economy but is also result of the vaccine they have access to. Whilst here in the UK and other western countries have access to Pfizer which has proven to be effective to more elderly people, Indonesia has access to the Sinovac which is still undergoing trials of efficacy in older people. The Pfizer vaccine will only be available to Indonesia later in the year.
• Who’s not vaccinating? Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Japan have deliberately decided to wait to roll out vaccinations to the population in order to obtain more information.
• News from Brazil shows that the Sinovac vaccine from China is 78% effective, and gives 100% protection against severe cases. The most encouraging result for countries that don’t have strong cold supply chains as this vaccine can be stored in a standard refrigerator. The Seychelles will begin administering the Sinovac vaccine from Sunday.
• Good news from the Pfizer vaccine as researchers have found that the vaccine may still protect against the new variants.

 

Global

• Taking flight: A recent study took the opportunity to assess inflight transmission of COVID-19. Among 86 passengers on a flight from Dubai to New Zealand, seven people tested positive the genetically identical form of COVID-19 whilst in isolation after landing. This suggests that despite pre-departure testing, inflight transmission can still be likely.
• Two drugs typically used for arthritis were proven to be effective for treating COVID-19 patients, who when were prescribed tocilizumab or sarilumab were less likely to die in an ICU, recovered faster and were discharged from hospital seven to ten days earlier.

 

 

Europe

• Germany is set to extend its lockdown until 31 January. Parents will also be allowed to take twice as much paid leave to look after children.
• Cyprus will enter a new lockdown from Sunday until at least 31 January.

 

Middle East

• Israel has imposed stricter lockdowns, as coronavirus infections rise to 8,000 per day.
• An infographic comparing how countries across the Middle East and North Africa region responded to the COVID-19 pandemic.
• As a result of the virus, many archaeological areas remain unguarded in Iraq. The country has seen a sharp rise in the looting of historic antiques.

 

Africa

• Schools in Kenya will reopen after a 9 month closure, the Ministry of Education has confirmed. Additionally, several doctors in Kenya have been fired after striking over lack of personal protective equipment and salary complaints.
• Eswatini, which neighbours South Africa, has announced a partial lockdown for 14 days. South Africa was the first country to record 1 million cases in Africa. The President announced last week that mask-wearing will be mandatory in public.
• A post-mortem study from Zambia found that COVID-19 was detected in 20% of deathsin deaths between June – September 2020.

 

North America

• In the USA the number of deaths in 24 hours reached 4,000 on Thursday 7 January 2021, the total number of those who have died from COVID-19 in the USA is now over 365,000.

 

South America

• COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in five Latin American countries, and has passed coronary heart disease as the No. 1 cause of death in Brazil, Chile, Ecuador and Panama

 

Asia

• Following a surge in cases, the Prime minister of Japan has declared a state of emergency in Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures. Although this doesn’t imply a lockdown, residents will be asked to avoid going out after 8.pm and will give $17,400 a month to restaurants that comply with shortened operating hours.