Week ending 24 July 

• USA remains the country with the most cases and deaths globally, surpassing 4 million cases.
• Recent analysis shows that Qatar and Bahrain lead in the number of cases per capita, and that rising cases in Pakistan mean it could become the next virus hotspot in Asia.
• An international spotlight on the race to not only find, but sustainably deliver a vaccine.
• There are currently more than 165 vaccines against coronavirus in development, 27 of which are in the human trial stage.
• Three of those are in the Phase III stage, and most recently a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford appears safe and triggers an immune response. The UK has ordered 100 million doses of this vaccine.

International data

Below is the latest international comparison of Covid-19 data using WHO published figures. As mentioned before, country to country comparison has some limitations because of the variation in approach, data collection and testing.

 

Data from 23/07/2020:

 

• Worldwide, there are 15,012,731 confirmed cases (an increase of 12.2% and 1,631,078 more cases) and 619,150 deaths (an increase of 6.7% and 39,089 more deaths) than last week. This suggests that worldwide cases and deaths may be rising slightly faster as the change last week was 11.3% and 5,6% respectively.
• The number of UK cases accounts for 2.0% of world cases at 296,381 and 7.3% of world deaths due to coronavirus (45,501 deaths). The UK continues to be ranked at 9 in terms of number of cases and remains the country with the highest death toll in Europe and third highest in the world.
• The USA remains the country with the most cases and deaths in the world, accounting for 25.8% of world cases (3,868,453 cases) and 22.9% of total deaths (141,479 deaths).
• Latin America continues to be a hotspot of the pandemic as cases and deaths continue to rise. Brazil continues to be the worst hit with the second highest death toll in the world with 81,487 deaths, an increase of 10% since last week.
• South Africa continues to see an increase in cases, where cases have increased by 27% in the past week to 394,948 ranking them at 5 (83,899 more cases since last week). South Africa also has the largest percentage increase in deaths where there has been a 33% increase to 5,940 deaths in the past week (1,487 more deaths).
• Cases rising in Pakistan indicate that it could become the next hotspot in Asia as cases rise by 11,277 to 269,191 (4% more cases).
• Currently, England has 14 times more cases than Scotland (18,500 cases), 15 times more cases than Wales (17,030 cases) and 44 times more cases than Northern Ireland (5,876 cases) (PHE data).

 

		Cases	Deaths	Death rate
1	USA	3,868,453	141,479	3.7%
2	Brazil	2,159,654	81,487	3.8%
3	India	1,238,635	29,861	2.4%
4	Russia	795,038	12,892	1.6%
5	South Africa	394,948	5,940	1.5%
6	Peru	362,087	13,579	3.8%
7	Mexico	356,255	40,400	11.3%
8	Chile	336,402	8,722	2.6%
9	UK	296,381	45,501	15.4%
10	Iran	281,413	14,853	5.3%
11	Pakistan	269,191	5,709	2.1%

 

 

 

International policy updates

 

Global

 

• The UN is calling for temporary, unconditional basic income for low and middle income countries. This will help families with the means to buy food, pay for health and education. Togo, West Africa, has already distributed cash transfers to 12% of the population, mostly to women who work in the informal sector (the section of the economy that is neither taxed nor monitored by any form of government)
• Elsewhere, Spain has recently approved a monthly budget of €250 million to top up the incomes of 850,000 vulnerable families and 2.3 million individuals, up to a minimum threshold. The scheme also asks that any bailout and recovery plans do not just focus on big markets and big businesses, this income could inject money back into local economies to keep small businesses alive.
• The Nuffield Trust published a report focussing on the trajectory of the NHS’s recovery after COVID-19, the report outlines that the NHS begun the pandemic in a worse position, including higher bed occupancy rates, staff shortages, fewer capital assets than other countries. The UK also entered the coronavirus pandemic with stark socioeconomic and racial inequalities relative to other countries. However, the report makes clear that there is an opportunity to learn from and sustain positive changes the NHS has made, and calls for the government to work across sectors to address inequalities.

 

Europe

 

• Belgium’s health minister has announced that there will be no easing of restrictions at the beginning of August, as was previously planned. She added that local measures could also be applied in places that have experienced new outbreaks.
• France gives 7 million citizens free COVID-19 face masks, amid concerns that the financial burden of basic protective equipment is out of reach for those living in poverty.

 

Africa

 

• The IMF has approved a $7.6million debt relief to help Burundi address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Over 2,000 healthcare workers in Ghana have been infected with coronavirus and the capital, Accra, accounts for over 50% of cases.
• Zimbabwe announces a new lockdown including a night curfew, a ban on political, religious and social gatherings, and reduced business operating hours in order to try to slow the spread of the virus.

 

North America

 

• The U.S. passed four million known coronavirus cases on Thursday, the world’s highest number. The numbers of daily hospitalizations and deaths are also rising.
• US daily deaths surpassed 1000 for the first time since June, but the Northeast region of the USA has recently seen reduced virus cases, with nine states showing flat or falling case levels. Strict lockdowns and large investments testing and contact tracing are behind the states declining numbers.
• Miami increases penalties for not wearing a mask, which includes $100 fine, and possible jail time for repeated warnings

 

South America

 

• The national senate in Bolivia has approved the use of chlorine dioxide as a treatment for coronavirus. An advisor to the health ministry strongly warns against its use.
• Brazilian president Bolsonaro criticised for lack of distancing, after testing positive for coronavirus again.

 

Middle East

 

• Qatar and Bahrain lead in the number of cases per capita, in Qatar 60% of those who tested positive showed no symptoms at all, and the asymptomatic figure was even higher in Bahrain at 68%. The fatality rate remains low in both countries ., with Qatar at 0.15% and Bahrain at 0.34%.
• Iraq resumes commercial flights despite rise in coronavirus cases, but passengers are required to show negative COVID-19 test results to airport staff. A full lockdown will also be briefly reimposed next week for Eid al-Adha
• Protests begun in Israel over the government’s response to coronavirus, as cases rise to new heights

 

Asia

 

• South Korean schools have imposed limits on the number of pupils going to schools in Seoul, with only one in three pupils allowed to physically attend school each day.
• Three prefectures in Japan will ease their lockdowns, but a “state of emergency” will remain intact for Tokyo and the northern island Hokkaido. A “state of emergency” relies heavily on public cooperation rather than enforcement, with local governments requesting that citizens stay at home.
• Thailand suspended all inbound flights from Tuesday, after a soldier who tested positive for COVID-19 entered a shopping mall.

 

Australia

 

• Victoria state recorded over 400 cases per day last week, and are now issuing fines for anyone who refuses to cover their face in public.

 

 

International spotlight on… the vaccine race

 

According to a statement published by the Business Secretary, Alok Sharma, there will be an additional “£100 million to ensure that any successful COVID-19 vaccine can be produced at scale in the U.K.”. In practice that means a new Cell and Gene Therapy Catapult Manufacturing Innovation Centre.

 

Following a $2bn deal with Pfizer Inc and German biotech BioNTech SE, the US has set a benchmark for COVID-19 vaccine pricing. The deal secures enough vaccines to inoculate 50 million Americans for about $40 per person (or the price of an annual flu shot). This is part of the U.S government’s Operation Warp Speed programme, which seeks to nurture a government-industry partnership. The UK has also signed a deal to secure 30 million doses of this vaccine (which injects part of the coronavirus’ genetic code).

 

There are currently more than 165 vaccines against coronavirus in development, 27 of which are in the human trial stage. Three of those are in the Phase III stage, and most recently a vaccine developed by the University of Oxford appears safe and triggers an immune response. The UK has ordered 100 million doses of this vaccine.

 

The key is to ensure that any vaccine that is proven to be substantially effective can be administered at scale across the country, and the world. Gavi, the vaccine alliance, is co-leading a global effort to ensure that any response to COVID-19 is effective and fair, primarily by identifying and rapidly accelerating development, production and delivery of COVID-19 vaccines so that anyone that needs them, gets them. At the end of April, the WHO developed the Access to Covid-19 Tools (ACT) accelerator, this is a framework for collaboration (not a decision-making body) that aims to support the development and equitable distribution of the diagnostics, vaccines and treatments the world needs. 14 countries and the European Commission have so far committed to the accelerator, and the Economist Intelligence Unit have developed a COVID-19 Health Funding tracker to independently track pledges, allocations, disbursements of funding for the global health response to COVID-19, as a way to provide an independent record of which funders are funding which aspects of the global health response. The tracker will help increase accountability and target further pledges towards critical funding gaps.