• New analysis from the Health Foundation's REAL Centre sets out the scale of the challenge facing the government in clearing the routine elective care backlog.
• The REAL Centre estimates it will cost up to £16.8bn over the remainder of this parliament, up to 2024/25 to enable the NHS to clear the backlog.
• The REAL Centre's modelling does not include the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on NHS productivity, therefore the overall funding requirement could be significantly higher.

Responding to new analysis from the Health Foundation's REAL Centre, the deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, Saffron Cordery, said:

"This new analysis reinforces our warning that millions of patients are at risk of facing further pain and delays for their treatment if the government fails to acknowledge the full scale of the impact of COVID-19 on the NHS.

"The last time the NHS faced a challenge like this was in the early 2000s. It took a bold commitment from the government – and public support for that commitment through higher taxes – to give health services the resources needed to tackle waiting times and improve quality of care. Radical intervention meant a generation was largely spared the pain and distress of lengthy waiting times.

"We need the government to be bold again. As we said in our joint report with the NHS Confederation last week, NHS frontline funding for 2022/23 needs to rise by around £10bn in addition to capital, social care and central government COVID-19 costs if we are to tackle this challenge head on.

"As speculation over the imminent funding announcement for the NHS reaches fever pitch, it's vital that the health service gets what it needs. The NHS has proven that when it is properly funded, it delivers for patients and the nation as a whole."