Week ending 10 July

International data

Below is the latest international comparison of Covid-19 data using WHO published figures. As mentioned before, country to country comparison has some limitations because of the variation in approach, data collection and testing.

Data from 10/07/2020

  • Worldwide, there are 12,015,193 confirmed cases (an increase of 12.2% and 1,304,762 more cases) and 549,247 deaths (an increase of 6% and 31,327 more deaths) than last week. This is similar to previous weeks’ data which tells us that worldwide cases and deaths are continuing to increase at a steady pace.
  • The number of UK cases accounts for 2.4% of world cases at 286,983 cases and 8.1% of world deaths due to coronavirus (44,517 deaths). The UK moves from 5th to 7th terms of number of cases and remains the country with the highest death toll in Europe and third highest in the world with 44,517 deaths.
  • The USA remains the country with the most cases and deaths in the world, accounting for 25.3% of world cases (3,038,325 cases) and 25.3% of total deaths (131,884 deaths).
  • India is the country in the top 10 for cases, which has seen the greatest percentage increase in cases in the past week, where cases increased by 23% to 767,296 (141,752 more cases), moving India from the country with the 4th most cases in the world to the third most in the world.
  • South Africa, although not ranked in the top 10 in terms of cases (ranked 13th), has seen an increase of cases by 34% to 224,665 (56,604 more cases), indicating that it could be the next international hotspot for the virus.
  • Cases in South America continue to increase where cases in Brazil, Peru, Chile and Mexico combined now account for 22% of the worlds cases (2,607,290 cases) and 22% of the world’s deaths.
  • Currently, England has 13 times more cases than Scotland (18,851 cases), 16 times more cases than Wales (15,929 cases) and 42 times more cases than Northern Ireland (5,894 cases) (PHE data).

 

   

Cases

Deaths

Death rate

1

USA

                         3,038,325

                            131,884

4.3%

2

Brazil

                         1,713,160

                              67,964

4.0%

3

India

                            767,296

                              21,129

2.8%

4

Russia

                            707,301

                              10,843

1.5%

5

Peru

                            312,911

                              11,133

3.6%

6

Chile

                            306,216

                                6,682

2.2%

7

UK

                            286,983

                              44,517

15.5%

8

Mexico

                            275,003

                              32,796

11.9%

9

Spain

                            252,513

                              28,396

11.2%

10

Iran

                            248,379

                              12,084

4.9%

11

Italy

                            242,149

                              34,914

14.4%

 

 

International policy updates

Global

  • Estimates suggest that one in five people worldwide have an underlying health condition that could increase their risk of developing covid-19. An associate professor from LSHTM suggests that as countries move out of lockdown, one way to protect vulnerable people is to advise those with underlying conditions to adopt social distancing measures appropriate to their level of risk or to prioritise them for vaccination in the future.
  • The UN Environment Programme published a report, Preventing the Next Pandemic: Zoonotic Diseases and How to Break the Chain of Transmission, in which the organisation call for a “one health strategy” to rebalance the needs of people, the planet and animals, and to move away from over-exploiting wildlife. The report outlines how so much of human activity in recent years has laid the foundations for pandemics, this includes increased urbanisation, rapid expansion of cities, issues in the built environment and industrialised farming.
  • A study examining the prevalence of N95 mask fit test failure (looking at extended use of N95 masks and limited reuse) has found that duckbill N95s had a high failure rate, 12 of 17 (70.6%) duckbill masks failed, compared with 14 of 51 (27.5%) dome-shaped masks. N95 failure may contribute to SARS-CoV-2 transmission despite PPE use and deserves further study. The researchers do note that the sample size of this study was limited, so call for further investigation.

Europe

 

Africa

 

North America 

 

South America

 

Middle East

  • First coronavirus care reported in North-western Syria: The spread of the virus in Syria (especially Aleppo) could have a devastating impact on what is a densely populated area, with little to no healthcare access. There are currently 300 ICU beds in Idlib, and in the past year 85 medical centres have been attacked and are left vulnerable.

Asia

 

Australia

 

International spotlight on… Second waves

 

A study, published by the Lancet, found that 5% of the Spanish population had antibodies to coronavirus whereas the BBC reports that 70% of the population would need antibodies to be protected by herd immunity

Governments across the world are considering how their health services (and the general population) can face a second wave of coronavirus. The USA is still considering where it is not even out of the first wave.

Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer, has urged the British population to take action by losing weight ahead of the second wave, whereas the Jordanian Ministry of health have implemented tougher laws on smoking in public.

These tactics seek to influence two things: one is to decrease the burden of disease on the healthcare system (this includes ischaemic heart disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, which are amongst the deadliest diseases) two: as reported above, 1/5 people have an underlying condition that could make coronavirus more severe, so addressing these issues reduces the impact of coronavirus not only on the health system but individuals too.

Canada’s health ministry has highlighted five ways to limit the lasting impact of a second wave:

  • Ensuring the public adhere to public health measures
  • Effective testing and tracing
  • Protecting frontline health and care workers
  • Protecting marginalised populations
  • Managing other healthcare issues

 

Anti-contagion policies to fight resurgence include the mandatory  use of masks in Lebanon and Catalonia, to the imposition of local lockdowns in Melbourne, Australia and Leicester (including door-to-door COVID-19 tests, much like in New Delhi). But more broadly, large scale anti-contagion policies to fight coronavirus and reducing the burden of other healthcare issues could be our best approach to limiting damage from a second wave.